Paper
Implications for PBH Dark Matter from a single Sub-Solar$\unicode{x2013}$GW Detection in LVK O1$\unicode{x2013}$O4
Authors
Alberto Magaraggia, Nico Cappelluti
Abstract
The detection of sub-solar mass black holes is a milestone of modern astrophysics as it would open a window either onto new stellar physics or could potentially unveil the nature of Dark Matter as Primordial Black Holes. On November 12, 2025, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) collaboration reported the compact binary merger candidate S251112cm, a system with no obvious EM counterpart, consistent with binary black hole merger with a chirp mass in the range $0.1-0.87 \, M_\odot$. The probability that at least one component has mass $<$1 $M_{\odot}$ is $>99\%$. Inspired by this trigger, we tested if a population of PBHs formed at Quantum Chromodynamics epoch with a broad mass function could account for a signal of this type. Our results, corresponding to a predicted event rate of $0.8 \,\text{yr}^{-1}$ as seen by LVK O3b, suggest that the observed merger rate of $0.23^{+0.86}_{-0.218}\,\text{yr}^{-1}\;(95\%\;\text{C.L.})$ if the trigger is confirmed as an astrophysical event would be compatible with such a model. Our predicted detection rate is also in agreement with current LVK expectations for stellar-mass binaries, remaining consistent with a scenario in which a non-negligible fraction of the $3-200 \;M_\odot$ mergers observed by LVK originate from Primordial Black Holes. If confirmed, this detection would place a lower limit to the PBH abundance $f_{PBH}>0.04$ for our adopted model.
Metadata
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"raw_xml": "<entry>\n <id>http://arxiv.org/abs/2602.21295v1</id>\n <title>Implications for PBH Dark Matter from a single Sub-Solar$\\unicode{x2013}$GW Detection in LVK O1$\\unicode{x2013}$O4</title>\n <updated>2026-02-24T19:00:26Z</updated>\n <link href='https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.21295v1' rel='alternate' type='text/html'/>\n <link href='https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.21295v1' rel='related' title='pdf' type='application/pdf'/>\n <summary>The detection of sub-solar mass black holes is a milestone of modern astrophysics as it would open a window either onto new stellar physics or could potentially unveil the nature of Dark Matter as Primordial Black Holes. On November 12, 2025, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) collaboration reported the compact binary merger candidate S251112cm, a system with no obvious EM counterpart, consistent with binary black hole merger with a chirp mass in the range $0.1-0.87 \\, M_\\odot$. The probability that at least one component has mass $<$1 $M_{\\odot}$ is $>99\\%$. Inspired by this trigger, we tested if a population of PBHs formed at Quantum Chromodynamics epoch with a broad mass function could account for a signal of this type. Our results, corresponding to a predicted event rate of $0.8 \\,\\text{yr}^{-1}$ as seen by LVK O3b, suggest that the observed merger rate of $0.23^{+0.86}_{-0.218}\\,\\text{yr}^{-1}\\;(95\\%\\;\\text{C.L.})$ if the trigger is confirmed as an astrophysical event would be compatible with such a model. Our predicted detection rate is also in agreement with current LVK expectations for stellar-mass binaries, remaining consistent with a scenario in which a non-negligible fraction of the $3-200 \\;M_\\odot$ mergers observed by LVK originate from Primordial Black Holes. If confirmed, this detection would place a lower limit to the PBH abundance $f_{PBH}>0.04$ for our adopted model.</summary>\n <category scheme='http://arxiv.org/schemas/atom' term='astro-ph.CO'/>\n <category scheme='http://arxiv.org/schemas/atom' term='astro-ph.HE'/>\n <published>2026-02-24T19:00:26Z</published>\n <arxiv:comment>9 pages, 2 figures, Accepted for publication in ApJ</arxiv:comment>\n <arxiv:primary_category term='astro-ph.CO'/>\n <author>\n <name>Alberto Magaraggia</name>\n </author>\n <author>\n <name>Nico Cappelluti</name>\n </author>\n <arxiv:doi>10.3847/1538-4357/ae48f9</arxiv:doi>\n <link href='https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ae48f9' rel='related' title='doi'/>\n </entry>"
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