Paper
Stress-Testing Assumptions: A Guide to Bayesian Sensitivity Analyses in Causal Inference
Authors
Arman Oganisian
Abstract
While observational data are routinely used to estimate causal effects of biomedical treatments, doing so requires special methods to adjust for observed confounding. These methods invariably rely on untestable statistical and causal identification assumptions. When these assumptions do not hold, sensitivity analysis methods can be used to characterize how different violations may change our inferences. The Bayesian approach to sensitivity analyses in causal inference has unique advantages as it allows users to encode subjective beliefs about the direction and magnitude of assumption violations via prior distributions and make inferences using the updated posterior. However, uptake of these methods remains low since implementation requires substantial methodological knowledge. Moreover, while implementation with publicly available software is possible, it is not straight-forward. At the same time, there are few papers that provide practical guidance on these fronts. In this paper, we walk through four examples of Bayesian sensitivity analyses: 1) exposure misclassification, 2) unmeasured confounding, and missing not-at-random outcomes with 3) parametric and 4) nonparametric Bayesian models. We show how all of these can be done using a unified Bayesian "missing data" approach. We also cover implementation using Stan, a publicly available open-source software for fitting Bayesian models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that presents a unified approach with code, examples, and methodology in a three-pronged illustration of sensitivity analyses in Bayesian causal inference. Our goal is for the reader to walk away with implementation-level knowledge.
Metadata
Related papers
Fractal universe and quantum gravity made simple
Fabio Briscese, Gianluca Calcagni • 2026-03-25
POLY-SIM: Polyglot Speaker Identification with Missing Modality Grand Challenge 2026 Evaluation Plan
Marta Moscati, Muhammad Saad Saeed, Marina Zanoni, Mubashir Noman, Rohan Kuma... • 2026-03-25
LensWalk: Agentic Video Understanding by Planning How You See in Videos
Keliang Li, Yansong Li, Hongze Shen, Mengdi Liu, Hong Chang, Shiguang Shan • 2026-03-25
Orientation Reconstruction of Proteins using Coulomb Explosions
Tomas André, Alfredo Bellisario, Nicusor Timneanu, Carl Caleman • 2026-03-25
The role of spatial context and multitask learning in the detection of organic and conventional farming systems based on Sentinel-2 time series
Jan Hemmerling, Marcel Schwieder, Philippe Rufin, Leon-Friedrich Thomas, Mire... • 2026-03-25
Raw Data (Debug)
{
"raw_xml": "<entry>\n <id>http://arxiv.org/abs/2602.23640v1</id>\n <title>Stress-Testing Assumptions: A Guide to Bayesian Sensitivity Analyses in Causal Inference</title>\n <updated>2026-02-27T03:23:20Z</updated>\n <link href='https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.23640v1' rel='alternate' type='text/html'/>\n <link href='https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.23640v1' rel='related' title='pdf' type='application/pdf'/>\n <summary>While observational data are routinely used to estimate causal effects of biomedical treatments, doing so requires special methods to adjust for observed confounding. These methods invariably rely on untestable statistical and causal identification assumptions. When these assumptions do not hold, sensitivity analysis methods can be used to characterize how different violations may change our inferences. The Bayesian approach to sensitivity analyses in causal inference has unique advantages as it allows users to encode subjective beliefs about the direction and magnitude of assumption violations via prior distributions and make inferences using the updated posterior. However, uptake of these methods remains low since implementation requires substantial methodological knowledge. Moreover, while implementation with publicly available software is possible, it is not straight-forward. At the same time, there are few papers that provide practical guidance on these fronts. In this paper, we walk through four examples of Bayesian sensitivity analyses: 1) exposure misclassification, 2) unmeasured confounding, and missing not-at-random outcomes with 3) parametric and 4) nonparametric Bayesian models. We show how all of these can be done using a unified Bayesian \"missing data\" approach. We also cover implementation using Stan, a publicly available open-source software for fitting Bayesian models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that presents a unified approach with code, examples, and methodology in a three-pronged illustration of sensitivity analyses in Bayesian causal inference. Our goal is for the reader to walk away with implementation-level knowledge.</summary>\n <category scheme='http://arxiv.org/schemas/atom' term='stat.ME'/>\n <published>2026-02-27T03:23:20Z</published>\n <arxiv:primary_category term='stat.ME'/>\n <author>\n <name>Arman Oganisian</name>\n </author>\n </entry>"
}