AI Post

@supamaiku retweeted Software is about to look a lot like ecommerce.Shitty margins. Unlimited competition. A hard way to make a living.Why? Because over the next few years, Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI are going to drink the software industry's milkshake 🥤If you were looking for a hotel in 2010, this is how it went:2010: Google "hotels in New York" → Google links you to TripAdvisor.But by 2020...2020: Google "hotels in New York" → Google shows its own hotel booking system integrated directly into the search results.RIP TripAdvisor 🪦📉 (check their stock price 2015 vs today)Google made a fortune by building products that captured demand on the keywords where they had the most traffic, like travel.But Google had finite resources. They only had so many developers to build these products, so it only made sense to do this for the largest categories: hotels, flights, shopping.This same thing is about to happen to most digital services and software products. Except this time, the constraint that protected smaller categories is gone.2025: Ask ChatGPT for the best CRM software → It directs you to Attio, Pipedrive, and Zoho.2028: Ask ChatGPT for the best CRM → It builds one, imports your data, and runs it for you at a fraction of the cost.The difference between OG Google and today's frontier models is that OG Google needed human engineers to build each vertical product. OpenAI, Anthropic, and the Google of today (Gemini) won't have this constraint.When the cost to build and maintain software approaches zero, there's no reason to stop at hotels and flights. You do it for everything, on demand.Right now, vibe coding is still fiddly. It requires a human in the loop, it's insecure, and it depends on third-party hosting and infrastructure. But I expect the frontier model companies to build out their own vertical infrastructure to run the software they generate, removing the current friction entirely. Think Claude's artifacts, except full-fledged digital products—hosted, maintained, and updated by the same AI that built them.The moat for most software companies isn't the code. It's the switching cost and the ecosystem lock-in. When an AI can rebuild your tool in seconds and migrate your data automatically, that moat disappears.Everyone understands that vibe coding = infinite competition. But this is different. They're taking your customer before they can even get to you.So, software becomes a lot like ecommerce. Near zero margin unless you own distribution and aren't reliant on Google/Meta for customers.TLDR: They drink your milkshake. They'll drink it up. Posted Mar 26, 2026 at 2:43PM